US Defense electronics forecast to be worth $134 billion from 2016–2025

The US defence electronics market is forecast to be worth at least US$134 billion from 2016–2025, according to Forecast International’s ‘The Market for U.S. Defense Electronics’ report.

Overall US defence spending is down, but the country’s defence electronics market is showing signs of strength and growth, with only a 24.02% (US$3.615 billion) drop in projected market value over the forecast period, from US$14.764 billion in 2016 to US$11.216 billion in 2025. This shows that less than a quarter of the 500+ leading programs reviewed in the report will end over the course of the forecast period — meaning that three-quarters will still be active.

This drop is an indicator of two developments, the report says: first, the economic freefall is truly over (the 10-year drop was forecast to be 24.69% for 2015–2024; 27.31% for 2014–2023; 39.73% for 2013–2022; 50.23% for 2012–2021; and 56.77% for 2011–2020); and second, defence issues themselves, rather than economic conditions, are now the reason for steadily decreasing defence budgets.

“Defence electronics spending continues to emphasise the development of new technologies, but tight budgets are still restricting R&D,” said the editor of the report, Richard Sterk, senior analyst at Forecast International.

“Militaries are having a difficult enough time getting funding for required items, much less for ‘pipedream’ acquisitions based on advanced concept development — no-one is willing to risk the limited money available to flesh out a new and unproven idea.”

Programs forecast to shine in the next 10 years include:

• The APG-81 AESA radar for F-35 aircraft, which is forecast to be worth more than US$6 billion alone over the next 10 years
• The ICNIA (Integrated Communications, Navigation, Identification Avionics) system that will integrate aircraft avionics for the F-22 and the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter
• The APG-68 pulse-Doppler fire control radar for the F-16
• The AAQ-33 Sniper Advanced Targeting Pod
• The ALQ-210 situational awareness and threat warning system
• The VUIT-2 video system
• The SPY-6 Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR) to be installed aboard aircraft carriers and destroyers
• The AQS-20 minehunting sonar and AQS-22 ALFS (Airborne Low Frequency Sonar) naval systems
• The Navy Multi-band Terminal C4I system
• The Bowman radio
• The Warfighter Information Network-Tactical (WIN T)