Tablets threaten PC growth

Gartner is lowering its PC unit forecast for 2011 and 2012, based on expectations of weaker demand for mobile consumer PCs.

Worldwide PC shipments are forecast to reach 387.8 million units in 2011, a 10.5% increase on 2010, but down from the previous projection of 15.9% growth this year.

Gartner expects worldwide PC shipments to total 440.6 million units in 2012, a 13.6% increase from 2011. This is down from the previous outlook of 14.8% growth for 2012.

Analysts said that consumer mobile PCs have been the dynamic growth engine of the PC market over the past five years, averaging annual rates of growth approaching 40%. For much of this period, mobile PCs remained consumers' platform of choice for bringing the internet into their daily lives.

However, due to the spread of low-cost embedded Wi-Fi modules, internet access is now available through a multitude of mobile devices that allow consumers to engage in virtually all their online activities without the need for a mobile PC.

"We expect growing consumer enthusiasm for mobile PC alternatives, such as the iPad and other media tablets, to slow home mobile PC alternatives, such as the iPad and other media tablets, to slow home mobile PC sales, especially in mature markets," said George Shiffler, research director.

"We once thought that mobile PC growth would continue to be sustained by consumers buying second and third mobile PCs as personal devices. However, we now believe that consumers are not only likely to forgo additional mobile PC buys but are also likely to extend the lifetimes of the mobile PCs they retain as they adopt media tablets and other mobile PC alternatives as their primary mobile device.

"Overall, we now expect home mobile PCs to average less than 10% annual growth in mature markets from 2011 to 2015."

The consumer enthusiasm for media tablets is a key factor in the forecast that the consumer mobile PC market will remain weak in mature markets. Consumer substitution of media tablets for mobile PCs already appears to be impacting mobile PC shipments in mature markets.

However, a bigger issue seems to be that consumers are taking a 'wait and see' attitude towards PCs as they anticipate the arrival of new media tablets during the rest of 2011.

The current fashionable device is the smartphone and now PCs will soon have to do battle with media tablets when they are launched in large numbers in the second quarter of 2011.

Until now, the appeal of mobile PCs has been their portability. But mainstream mobile PCs have not shed sufficient weight, and do not offer the all-day battery life to substantiate their promise of real mobility.

These limitations have become all the more apparent with the rapid spread of social networking, which thrives on constant and immediate connections.

In short, all-day untethered computing has yet to materialise, and that has exposed the 'mobile' PC as merely a transportable PC at best.