Photovoltaics grow but forecast to shrink

Worldwide solar photovoltaic (PV) market installations reached a record high of 18.2 GW in 2010. This represents growth of 139% over the previous year, according to the annual PV market report, Marketbuzz 2011, issued by Solarbuzz, a California-based solar energy consultancy.

The PV industry generated US$82 billion in global revenues in 2010, up 105% Y/Y from US$40 billion in 2009. Companies throughout the PV chain successfully raised more than US$10 billion in equity and debt over the last 12 months.

In 2010, the top five countries by PV market size were Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic, Japan and the US - representing over 80% of global demand.

European countries represented 14.7 GW, or 81% of world demand in 2010.

The top three countries in Europe were Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic, which collectively totalled 12.9 GW. In 2010, the Japanese and US markets grew by 101% and 96%.

In all, over 100 countries made some contribution to soaring global PV demand last year.

Worldwide solar cell production reached 20.5 GW in 2010, up from 9.86 GW a year earlier, with thin film production accounting for 13.5% of total production. Producers in China and Taiwan continued to build share and now account for 59% of global cell production, up from 49% last year.

The top two cell manufacturers in 2010 were Suntech Power and JA Solar, who tied for the first position, followed closely by First Solar.

The top eight polysilicon manufacturers had 145,200 tonnes per annum of capacity in 2010, while the top eight wafer manufacturers accounted for 45% of global wafer supply. The excess of production over market demand caused crystalline silicon factory gate module prices to drop 14% in 2010, less than the 38% reduction of the previous year.

After addressing 2010 outcomes, the report sets out three scenarios for supply, demand and prices over the next five years. By 2015, it projects the European market share to fall to between 45-54% as North America and several Asian markets grow rapidly.

The US will be the fastest growing major country market over this period. Over the next five years, factory gate module prices are projected to drop between 37% and 50% from 2010 levels.