PC shipments set to grow 20%

The Asia Pacific personal computer market is forecast to grow 20.3% in 2010, reaching 114.6 million unit shipments, according to Gartner’s latest forecast.

Spending on PCs is forecast to grow 12.4% in 2010, compared with 2.9% in 2009, due to a sharper decline in average selling prices for PCs in 2009.

“While overall growth in Asia Pacific was strong in 2009, at a country level India and the more mature markets with high PC penetration had weak shipments,” said Gartner.

“However, the improving worldwide economy should lead to better confidence to invest in 2010, especially in Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore. Similarly in India, PC buyers are now more confident to spend, with employment on the upswing.”

In 2009, PC unit growth was spearheaded by China and the South-Asian markets. China took 59% of all PCs shipped in the region, up from 54% in 2008. In 2010, government stimulus programs, including stimulation of domestic consumption, helped to mitigate the adverse effect of the US and European recessions on these export-oriented economies. Gartner expects China to represent 60% of all PCs shipped in Asia Pacific and 19% of PC shipments worldwide in 2010.

Between 2009 and 2014, the Asia Pacific PC market will register a compound average growth rate of 15.7%. Emerging PC markets will lead the growth, particularly China and India. South-Asian markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam are also expected to perform strongly.

Mobile-for-desk-based PC substitution continues unabated and first-time PC buyers are increasingly turning to mobile PCs. Mobile PC units will grow 35.2% in 2010 reaching 53.2 million. In 2011, a milestone will be reached where mobile PC shipments will take 51% share of all PCs shipped in Asia Pacific.

Overall, Asia Pacific desk-based PC unit shipments will increase 9.9% to 61.4 million units in 2010, largely driven by the success of a rural PC program in China, where 70 to 80% of PCs shipped are desk based. In other markets it will be driven by the replacement of aged desk-based PCs.

In China, PC shipment growth is expected to reach 22.1%. Government and education segments will have the most stable demand in the professional market. The government announced early this year that it will try to increase education spending to 4% of 2010 GDP and is focused on creating opportunities in schools and kindergartens using PCs.

Driving growth in China will be the urbanisation of an estimated 65 million people as they move from the country to small and mid-sized cities and towns within five years.

In more mature markets (Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Singapore), business will be the biggest growth area in 2010 due to PC replacements that were held off in the past 18 months.

Mobile PC growth will continue to be strong as more desk-based PCs are replaced by mobile PCs due to the need for mobility and flexibility in working anywhere.

Desk-based PC growth will mainly be sustained by government and education, as well as areas of business. The professional market for desk-based PCs will grow slightly in 2010 and 2011 and decrease from then onwards.

The desk-based PC remains popular with gamers and buyers who look for flexibility in configuration and performance. Demand for mini-notebooks is expected to taper off in these markets from 2010, but will remain attractive to students where the low price fits the budget.

Mini-notebooks will contribute increasingly less growth over the period as they face increasing competition from other value-priced, better performance mobile PCs and new devices like Apple's iPad.